P&KToday: Slow Corn Sales Pace Slows P&K Sales

January 8, 2016 12:44 PM

P&K was lower on the week.

  • DAP $70.74 below year-ago pricing -- lower $6.51/st on the week to $507.46/st.
  • MAP $61.60 below year-ago -- lower $5.38/st this week to $529.19/st.
  • Potash $89.49 below year-ago -- lower $5.84/st this week to $391.37/st.
  • The average cash corn price figured in to P&K this week is $3.65 1/2.
  • The national average corn basis firmed 2 1/2 cents from last week to 1 3/4 cent above March futures. The national average cash corn price softened 6 1/4 cents from last week to $3.55. Basis is steady with the three-year average, which is 1 cent above futures for this week.

PhosphatePhosphate prices were lower this week Ohio leading declines in DAP and Minnesota leading MAP declines. Farmers have been slow to sell corn this year. Typically, a round of pre-New Year's sales for tax reasons brings buyers to market for spring fertilizer. For the time being, our outlook is for sideways movement in phosphate with a soft bias. Farmers are expected, however to open the bin doors in the coming weeks and the added cash flow may excite phosphate demand, supporting mild price increases. Dealer inventories are a bit in question as retailers are hesitant to overextend inventories which also adds an element of price support.

Globally the situation is about the same. Importers are dragging their feet in Brazil to book phosphate. Asian demand is at a seasonal low, and India is reported to already be well supplied, also weighing on demand.

We do expect higher phosphate prices by spring so if you plan to sell some corn this January, we would advise to offset those sales with the purchase of at least a portion of your spring phosphate needs.

potashPotash is still in very good supply both domestically and globally and prices are expected to continue to slide near-term. Russian potash is priced at the bottom end of exported supplies suggesting they intend to continue to pursue a volume over price strategy. That is likely in response to the large amount of exports coming out of competitor, Belarus which has captured some decent marketshare over the past year.

As with phosphate, we recommend that once your bin doors swing open, you consider booking potash for spring with cash in hand. Spring prices are uncertain although seasonally, the trend is for prices to firm in response to spring demand. We will look for opportunities to book the low, but potash is priced very low compared to the rest of our fertilizer survey and it is hard to go wrong at current prices.

By the Pound --

DAP is priced at 52 3/4 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 50 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 33 cents/lbK2O.

The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended January 1, 2016.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 1/8/2016

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
$0.52 3/4
$0.60 3/4