P&KToday: P&K Prices Flat as Harvest Rolls On

October 30, 2015 11:51 AM

 

Potash and phosphate softened on the week.

  • DAP $50.41 below year-ago pricing -- higher $1.16/st on the week to $534.77/st.
  • MAP $36.51 below year-ago -- lower $1.14/st this week to $563.57/st.
  • Potash $54.12 below year-ago -- lower $2.66/st this week to $425.09/st.
  • The average cash corn price figured in to P&K this week is $3.88.
  • The national average corn basis firmed 7 3/4 cents from last week to 2 cents below December futures. The national average cash corn price firmed 5 1/2 cents from last week to $3.76. Basis is firmer than the three-year average, which is 12 cents below futures for this week.
    10302015Phosphate

Phosphate prices at the wholesale level are reported to be basically flat with domestically produced product fetching a slight premium to imports, as expected. As harvest wraps up, demand for phosphate will likely support slightly higher prices, but retailers are cautious not to raise prices out of the production budget on the farm. Growers are still waiting on phosphate purchases, hoping for lower prices.

Our forecast is unchanged. Demand led support will firm prices slightly in response to post harvest demand -- if there is any. From there, phosphate prices should ease slightly into the first of the year and firm once again for spring.

10302015PotashPotash prices continue to soften and gains in this week's price survey were limited to $4.71 in Nebraska and 23 cents in North Dakota. All other states were lower on the week, and farmers are beginning to take notice. In Central Iowa, potash prices are being quoted in some cases below $400 per short ton and an Indiana farmer reported he had received a bid for $400 even in that state.

Despite lower returns on corn, soybeans and wheat, soil health must be maintained and lower potash prices will help growers ensure they can cut inputs expenses while still servicing soil nutrition. It is important to maintain production margins, but yield will suffer if fertilizer inputs are cut too deeply. At $400 per short ton, potash makes its money back with cash corn priced at $3.40 1/2. That being the case, and knowing farmers will consider nitrogen first, potash is priced across the Midwest to fit at least some K into the budget.

I would be a buyer of potash below $400 per short ton and DAP between $500 and $515.

 

By the Pound --

DAP is priced at 56 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 53 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 35 1/2 cents/lbK2O.

The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended October 23, 2015.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 10/28/2015

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
 
Average
$0.56 1/2
$0.53 1/2
$0.35 1/2
Average
Year-ago
$0.61 1/2
$0.57
$0.39 3/4
Year-ago

 

10302015P_KIndex