P&KToday: German K Production Slows on Environmental Regs

March 31, 2016 04:32 PM

P&K softened on the week.

  • DAP $90.37 below year-ago pricing -- lower 82 cents/st on the week to $483.54/st.
  • MAP $97.90 below year-ago -- lower $3.98/st this week to $494.23/st.
  • Potash $132.04 below year-ago -- lower $4.25/st this week to $358.89/st.
  • The average cash corn price figured in to P&K this week is $3.42 per bushel.
  • The national average corn basis firmed 1 cent from last week to 1/2 cent above May futures. The national average cash corn price declined 1 1/2 cent from last week to $3.67 1/2. Basis is softer than the three-year average, which is 7 1/2 cents above futures for this week.

PotashPotash producers are still stinging from burdensome oversupply. North American potash producer PotashCorp has made some drastic production cuts in recent months and now word comes from Germany that K S will suspend production at two of their mines. This time, the decision is environmental rather than fiscal. K S has been operating under a deal with German authorities which limits the amount of wastewater they can inject into underground layers of porous rock. The rest has been siphoned off into the Werra River near Frankfurt.

The company expects restrictions on salt waste water injections to be eased by summer, and production will resume at that time. Germany produces roughly 4 million metric tons of potash annually and although the Hattorf and Unterbreizbach mines are sizable operations, the production suspensions will not make a dent in global supplies.

We expect robust supplies globally, aided by weakness in the Russian ruble against the dollar will keep the pressure on retail potash here in the U.S.

PhosphatePhosphate prices are showing some signs of near-term softness as global production ramps up. The Russian ruble will continue to incentivise P&K production in that country which will likely keep Russia's competitors active in the battle for P&K marketshare. Our advice on phosphate is unchanged as DAP and MAP are each lower in this week's price survey. Expect near-term prices to hold steady with a lower bias and then continue lower once spring demand is exhausted. We project fall prices will be below today's retail phosphate price, and better reflect corn futures and the rest of the fertilizer segment.

 

By the Pound --

The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended March 24, 2016.

DAP is priced at 50 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 46 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 29 3/4 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 3/30/2016

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
 
Average
$0.50 1/2
$0.46 1/2
$0.29 3/4
Average
Year-ago
$0.60 1/4
$0.54 1/4
$0.41
Year-ago

 

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