P&KToday: Book Spring Phosphate

April 22, 2016 01:02 PM

PhosphateP&K were mixed on the week.

  • DAP $94.29 below year-ago pricing -- higher $1.00/st on the week to $484.98/st.
  • MAP $90.18 below year-ago -- higher $4.12/st this week to $500.94/st.
  • Potash $133.34 below year-ago -- lower 27 cents/st this week to $356.76/st.
  • The average cash corn price figured in to P&K this week is $3.42 1/4 per bushel.
  • The national average corn basis softened 2 1/4 cents from last week to 3/4 of a cent below May futures. The national average cash corn price firmed 19 1/4 cents from last week to $3.94 1/2. Basis is softer than the three-year average, which is 8 3/4 cents above futures for this week.

Our appetite for risk has run out on phosphate. It appears April has given us all the price declines it can in the face of increasing farmer demand. From here, phosphate prices are expected to firm. Given global production fundamentals, we still expect softer DAP and MAP by harvest, but for now, we advise farmers abandon our previous advice to stay hand-to-mouth in favor of booking phosphate for spring application at today's price.

Phosphate gains were led by Missouri MAP, up $18 per short ton (st), Illinois MAP, up $11.15/st and Missouri DAP, up $12.01 on the week. Most other states were less than a few bucks higher although Michigan DAP fell $9.12 on the week, where this week's DAP price is well below the regional average price per ton.

PotashPotash is lower this week as price increases were confined to roughly $3.50/st in Illinois and Kansas. Little has changed in global potash supplies which are still more than ample to answer demand both at home and abroad. We maintain our hand-to-mouth approach in potash, and prices will likely fall slightly through the summer, although at these low levels, the downside may be limited.

USDA is expected to put corn planting progress at roughly 25% complete as of Sunday. Northern growers will be turnin' and burnin' soon if they are not already and the added demand will put a floor under prices, especially for phosphate but we may see potash level off temporarily at current levels.

Book spring phosphate at current prices and stay hand-to-mouth on potash.

By the Pound --

The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended April 15, 2016.

DAP is priced at 50 1/4 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 46 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 29 3/4 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 4/22/2016

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
 
Average
$0.50 1/2
$0.47
$0.29 1/2
Average
Year-ago
$0.61
$0.56
$0.41
Year-ago

 

P_KSpreads