Inputs Market Update: Hello Wisconsin!

September 28, 2015 04:02 PM

Capitol_with_flag_2Capitol_with_flag_2

Gains tallied $1.86 to Declines' $43.50 in the regional averages. UAN28% was our only upside mover in this week's survey.

Wisconsin was our big winner this week with statewide declines totaling $292.10 between prices reported on six nutrients. That includes sharply lower DAP, potash, UAN32% and urea in the land of the Badgers. We saw price action like this earlier in the season as growers from various states finished adding nitrogen in-season to the corn crop. We have noted that eastern Belt prices have been far above those in the west and this week's price action goes a long way to righting that balance. Ohio, Michigan and Minnesota also each posted impressive declines, and as harvest rolls into full swing, fertilizer prices are dropping.

9282015NH3SpreadFarmers who are planning to apply fall fertilizer in Wisconsin should consider booking half of expected fall fertilizer needs at today's price. Since prices in that state have fallen so hard and fast, we do not expect a whole lot of downside to be left in the markets, but the chance is there for Wisconsin fertilizer prices to continue lower, so reward the dip, but hold off on booking the whole hog until a low has been confirmed.

Most other states were right around unchanged on most nutrients. Illinois and Nebraska each firmed around $10.00 per short ton on NH3; Ohio DAP is up $10.00 on the week although UAN28% in Ohio is sharply higher this week and we would advise to hold off on booking Ohio 28% until later this winter.

Diesel is down another 2 cents per gallon regionally as Missouri fell 21 cents statewide. Minnesota fell 11 cents per gallon of its own while most others were on either side of unchanged. We are happy at 60% filled for fall and 30% filled on farm diesel for spring. We will go hand-to-mouth into harvest as crude oil rolled over in today's market action suggesting sideways to lower fuel prices ahead.

9282015RubyPropane retraced the four cents it added last week thanks to a price retreat in Indiana. Most states are on either side of unchanged here as well.

Corn Futures -- December 2016 corn futures closed Friday, September 25 at $4.11 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $646.55 per acre -- higher $15.08/acre on the week. With anhydrous priced at $660.44 this week, the eNCR/NH3 spread narrowed 15.50 points and now stands at 13.89. This means one ton of anhydrous ammonia is priced at a $13.89 premium to expected new-crop revenue per acre.

Using USDA's January yield peg of 171 and steady basis, expected new-crop corn revenue based on December 2015 futures at Monday's open $3.88 totals $663.48 per acre.

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Regionally --

Anhydrous fell 52 cents to $660.44; UAN28 firmed $1.86 week-over to $309.26; UAN32 fell $9.12 to $338.74; Urea is $7.83 lower at $432.23.

DAP is $11.84 lower on the week at $542.56; MAP fell $5.25 to $570.19; Potash softened $8.88 to $438.96. Farm diesel is 2 cents lower this week at $2.02/gallon. LP is 4 cents lower on the week at 98 cents/gallon.

Nutrient/Fuel
9/14/15
9/21/15
Week-over Change
Current Week
Nutrient/Fuel
Anhydrous
$669.14
$660.96
-52 cents
$660.44
Anhydrous
DAP
$554.57
$554.40
-$11.84
$542.56
DAP
MAP
$585.26
$575.44
-$5.25
$570.19
MAP
Potash
$462.38
$447.84
-$8.88
$438.96
Potash
UAN28
$313.70
$307.40
$1.86
$309.26
UAN28
UAN32
$352.07
$347.86
-$9.12
$338.74
UAN32
Urea
$446.59
$440.06
-$7.83
$432.23
Urea
Farm Diesel
$2.09
$2.04
-2 cents
$2.02
Farm Diesel
LP
$0.98
$1.02
-4 cents
$0.98
LP
Composite
694.35
685.29
-9.06
676.23
Composite

 

9282015Sammich