Farm Fuels in Focus: Farm Fuels Firm Slightly

March 10, 2016 12:26 PM
  • LP is a penny higher on the week at $1.02 per gallon.
  • April 2016 natural gas is at $1.77 -- up 15 cents from our last Fuels in Focus.
  • Farm Diesel is 2 cents higher on the week at an average of $1.47 per gallon.
  • April 2016 WTI crude oil is at $37.73 -- higher $3.07 from our last report.
  • April 2016 Heating oil futures are at $1.21 -- 9 cents higher than our last report.

DieselFarm Diesel -- We booked farm diesel a few weeks ago at the winter low of a regional average of $1.43. We are 4 cents above that price point now and as fieldwork continues, prices are likely to firm. Heating oil and crude oil both surged higher over the past several days, contributing, in part to higher farm diesel and gasoline prices. Add seasonal demand-based support and it is easy to make a case that diesel has placed a short-term bottom.

Uncertainty will continue to rule the crude oil market which will likely spillover into global grains trade. On Wednesday's Market Rally Radio Show, Chip and I had a conversation with Pro Farmer alum, Scott Davis which included his thoughts on the crude oil market. Scott talked about his belief that global crude oil stocks data has a few holes in it. Crude oil has been a leader to the downside in the overall commodities slide and at some point crude oil prices will have less influence over grain prices. The recent rally in crude oil futures emboldened market bulls, but Scott has a few reasons for suggesting global crude stocks data may not be painting an entirely accurate picture. Listen to the audio in the excerpt below...

 

We expect farm diesel prices to continue to firm in response to farmer demand for spring fieldwork and soften again, taking cues from the crude oil market, once spring demand is satisfied.

  • Distillate inventories reported by EIA fell 1.1 million barrels to 162.5 mmbbl. Stocks are currently 37.0 mmbbl above the same time last year.
  • The regionwide low currently lies at $1.36 in Kansas and the Midwest high is at $1.64 in Wisconsin.
Farm Diesel 3/10/16
Three Weeks Ago
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
 
Iowa
$1.42
$1.43
1 cent
$1.44
Iowa
Illinois
$1.45
$1.50
Unchanged
$1.50
Illinois
Indiana
$1.55
$1.58
3 cents
$1.61
Indiana
Wisconsin
$1.50
$1.64
Unchanged
$1.64
Wisconsin
Minnesota
$1.46
$1.47
7 cents
$1.54
Minnesota
South Dakota
$1.38
$1.41
2 cents
$1.43
South Dakota
North Dakota
$1.39
$1.38
-1 cent
$1.37
North Dakota
Nebraska
$1.38
$1.39
5 cents
$1.44
Nebraska
Missouri
$1.46
$1.47
4 cents
$1.51
Missouri
Kansas
$1.36
$1.36
Unchanged
$1.36
Kansas
Ohio
$1.39
$1.39
4 cents
$1.43
Ohio
Michigan
$1.40
$1.41
2 cents
$1.39
Michigan
Midwest Average
$1.43
$1.45
2 cents
$1.47
Midwest Average

LP

Propane -- Not much to report on the propane side. Even here in central Iowa we have been able to leave windows cracked through the night and have had very little use for home heat. Spring seems to have sprung a little early nationwide and as always, warmer temperatures will mean softening demand for LP, and softer prices. As we have noted before, crude oil prices will have a heavy hand in determining the offseason price, but we maintain our belief that prices will be about the same this year at the low as last year. Look for the price floor in June or July.

  • According to EIA, last week, national propane inventories fell 0.745 million barrels -- now 8.576 million barrels above the same time last year at 63.320 million barrels.
  • The regionwide low is at $0.87 per gallon in Kansas and the regionwide high is in Indiana at $1.33.
LP 3/10/16
Three Weeks Ago
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
 
Iowa
$0.94
$0.97
4 cents
$1.01 Iowa
Illinois
$0.94
$0.94
Unchanged
$0.94 Illinois
Indiana
$1.36
$1.36
-3 cents
$1.33 Indiana
Wisconsin
$1.00
$1.00
Unchanged
$1.00 Wisconsin
Minnesota
$1.00
$0.96
Unchanged
$0.96 Minnesota
South Dakota
$0.89
$0.89
Unchanged
$0.89 South Dakota
North Dakota
$0.92
$0.91
Unchanged
$0.91 North Dakota
Nebraska
$0.88
$0.88
1 cent
$0.89 Nebraska
Missouri
$1.19
$1.19
-1 cent
$1.18 Missouri
Kansas
$0.87
$0.87
Unchanged
$0.87 Kansas
Ohio
$0.95
$0.95
Unchanged
$0.95 Ohio
Michigan
$1.16
$1.16
9 cents
$1.25 Michigan
Midwest Average
$1.01
$1.01
1 cent
$1.02 Midwest Average

 

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