Russian producers are expected to continue to take advantage of ruble weakness against the dollar which may swell global stocks through summer.
Global demand has caught refiners flat-footed. Profitable production margins will encourage more aggresive diesel refining, but prices are likely to firm before supplies rebalance.
As international ammonia markets show signs of tightening, UAN and urea are expected to fall between now and post harvest applications.
Fertilizer prices were lower but generally very flat this week as corn planting continues. We expect the end of preplant and even some sidedress activity to be marked by a down week across the board for fertilizers. That time appears to be right around the corner.
Updated fuels and fertilizer charts as of the week ended May 20, 2016.
Potash producers are working hard to manage excess supplies as North American phosphate production remains depressed.
Chinese distillate exports are likely to rise as U.S. stocks decline seasonally. Firmer crude oil will limit the downside for farm diesel, as will agricultural demand for the time being.
Anhydrous firmed only slightly this week as preplant applications decline sharply. We look ahead to UAN prices for post emerge applications and what anhydrous price action might tell us.
AgDay anchor Clinton Griffiths and Davis Michaelsen discuss the current state of fertilizer prices and what will drive price action through the summer months.